Saudi Arabia has been a key international player ever since it nationalized the oil industry in the 1980s. For its entire existence post WWII the United States has been a central ally to Saudi independence and has traditionally supported them, all in exchange for a stable oil and energy market.
A New World
Over the past decade, Saudi Arabia has been facing glaring foreign policy issues in their oil-rich state. As the world begins to shift away from oil the Saudi Arabian royal family has been trying to diversify as much as possible, and to great success. In just 2021 to 2022, the Saudi economy grew by 4.8%.
This economic leap is known as Vision 2030 and can be greatly attributed to the non-oil-focused policies that have been implemented. These initiatives would include placing a larger focus on digitalization and creating new oil exports such as technology and investments. With the Saudi government emphasizing its need for economic reform the country may be able to avoid a complete economic and political meltdown.
This shift in the marketplace for Saudi Arabia has garnered the interest of multiple international powerhouses, including the United States. The United States has been a firm ally of the Kingdom since the start of the Cold War and has been largely supportive of its diversification process. Despite the seemingly good relations, there is one point of contention that's frozen future Saudi alignment with the Western Hemisphere. That point is the State of Israel.
The Israel Question
Ever since the Trump administration the United States has tried to foster a renewed emphasis on creating better relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors. President Trump spearheaded this through the Abraham Accords which normalized relations between Israel and four Arab states. This was one of the highlights of the Trump presidency and gave way to a more rigorous foreign policy in regard to Israeli relations.
President Biden has continued the trend of his predecessor in attempting to maintain good relations between the Israeli state and its neighbors but has faced far more difficulty in doing so. Biden was originally in the final leg of his plan to finally normalize Israeli relations with Saudi Arabia in turn for a boisterous defense pact but would soon find his plans on hold. With the onset of the new Israeli-Gaza Conflict that is occurring, Saudi Arabia has effectively frozen all future negotiations with Israel until the conflict is over, thus derailing the Biden administration’s efforts.
In response to the international crisis, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stated that “the Hamas attacks may have been driven in part by a desire to scuttle the United States’ most ambitious part of the initiative: the sealing of diplomatic relations between rivals Israel and Saudi Arabia.” With this context, one must look at what exactly the Saudis would gain from this.
What Does Saudi Arabia Gain From This?
While the Saudi Arabian government does miss out on an exclusive U.S. military defense pact it does gain domestic and regional support for its actions. As the birthplace of Islam, Saudi Arabia holds itself as the international beacon of the Islamic world. Since the Palestinians are a predominantly Muslim group the Saudi royal family received harsh backlash for their original plans to normalize relations and would likely face significant internal strife if they tried to proceed with the current war.
In addition to the domestic threats Saudi Arabia would face by warming up to Israel, the Saudi government has also pushed back on future U.S.-sponsored agreements until the war ends. This is seen as a potential move to shift more toward Iran and China. This can best be seen through the Chinese-sponsored peace talks between both Iran and the Kingdom back in April. By freezing current relations the Saudi Arabia dynasty gains far more than it loses although at the expense of America’s international agenda.
America’s Next Steps The United States’ next steps should be to continue to facilitate a dialogue between Israel and its neighbors while supporting Israel through humanitarian assistance. The United States can inspire the Saudis to once again support the Israeli state only if they give a full commitment to back the Vision 2030 plan and reaffirm the rights of Palestinians. Only by providing assurances toward the protection of Palestinians will the Saudi Arabian government ever continue President Biden’s agenda.
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