Cold War I was a game of friendship building. The United States in an effort to assemble allies to counteract the Soviet Union formed strong relationships with Japan, to hedge the Soviet Power in the Northeast, and South Korea to in its decade’s long standoff against its northern, communist counterpart. The USSR is long gone but the spirit of friendship assembling is still strong in the face of the ever-increasing Chinese Sphere of Influence.
Over the last couple weeks, we’ve seen Beijing and the US compete in alliance building with two summits of antagonistic nature towards the other. We’ll examine the key takeaways from both and how US-Sino Relations might fare in the face of ever-increasing geopolitical hostility.
President Biden hosted Japan and South Korea at Camp David where the three nations agreed to increase trilateral security cooperation.
The three leaders pictured here after the summit: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan (left), President Biden, and Prime Minister Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea (right)
Photo Credit: Samuel Corum for the New York Times
“Our countries are stronger, and the world will be safer as we stand together. And I know this is a belief that all three shares,” Biden said.
Parts of the security commitment committed to annual military exercises, cooperate on areas like batteries, semiconductors, as well as exports of military technology to better shield their economies and security infrastructure from the Chinese. Provisions such as these have been notoriously difficult to settle within the Trilateral partnership. Historical Grievances between South Korea and Japan run deep. South Korean grievances against Japan’s historical military influence in the region, especially during World War II, are the source of widespread anti-Japanese sentiment in the country. The success of the Camp David Summit can largely be attributed by the warming relations between the two nations as a result of the change of policy driven by President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea who took office in May of 2022, as well as the clear incentive to mutually counter the growing Chinese Sphere of Influence.
The Chinese on the other hand have been shoring up friendships with developing countries across Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia,. Last Monday, Xi Jinping joined a conference of developing countries all open to Beijing’s wooing at the 15th BRICS Summit in South Africa. Amongst developing countries, Vladmir Putin appeared at the summit via a prerecorded video (likely due to South Africa’s obligation as a member of the International Criminal Court to arrest Putin if he were to step onto South African Soil), Regardless, Russia and China are both eager to expand their spheres of influence against the United States. The developments in the recent summits have cemented our understanding that the two factions are operating with the understanding that the furthering of their own geopolitical ambitions must come at the expense of the other. The Chinese state has made efforts to stoke anti-American sentiment within its populous with the Chinese state news agency denouncing America as “driven by a desperate bid to salvage its hegemonic power.”
Chinese president Xi Jinping, left, receives the Order of South Africa from President Cyril Ramaphosa
© Themba Hadebe/AP
The United State’s Policy in the face of China is finally moving past the Nixonian understanding of Geopolitical Competition. “Xi Jinping is not trying to out-compete America in the existing liberal international order dominated by the U.S.. …His long-term goal is to change the world order into a Sino-centric one.” Steve Tsang, Director of the SOAS China Institute, told CNN. China is keen upon building friendships with developing countries in a deliberate attempt to shift the world order from DC to Beijing. Chinese officials are keen on expanding BRICS to dozens of countries with countries like Indonesia, Nigeria, Argentina, and Saudi Arabia all knocking on the door. President Biden’s actions at Camp David are reflective of an understanding on how to counter Beijing’s Ambitions, through rebuilding a clearly defined American Bloc reminiscent of Cold War Era Politics.
At the current rate, a path towards Cold War II seems inevitable; especially given the trickier proposition for countries interested in non-alignment. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said in a State of the Nation address, in remarks ostensibly directed at Western countries in NATO. “We have resisted pressure to align ourselves with any one of the global powers or with influential blocs of nations.”
In the Cold War between the USSR and the US, non-alignment was a plausible option for nations with the capacity to form security ties with one another in the face of the Soviet and American military juggernauts. What makes the United States/ Chinese relationship different, is the strong economic interconnections between the two as well as every other country in the world, that was not characteristic of the Cold War Era. The global economic implications of a cold war between China and the US would likely lead to non-alignment no longer being a viable option of Developing Countries. The consequence of this would be a hastier cascade of nations across the world deciding upon which faction to side with, expediting and intensifying a new Cold War.
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