In the past three weeks, there have been three huge elections that will greatly impact the geopolitical world in the coming years. With the Russo-Ukrainian War still raging on and new alarming developments in China and Israel the United States is in desperate need of allies. These elections serve as a tool that the United States can use to find these allies in a time as chaotic as the present.
Slovakian Backsliding:
Earlier this month on October 2nd Slovakia held their parliamentary elections to elect the next members of the National Council. Unlike the United States’ Slovakia has a proportional representation electoral system and whichever party wins the parliamentary elections holds control over the presidency as well.
This is alarming as the dominant party during this election cycle was the Direction–Social Democracy or SMER-SD Party. This party holds largely left-wing populist political messaging but its most alarming policy has come from its leader Robert Fico.
Fico has been frequently recorded as being sympathetic toward the Russian state and largely supports peace talks in which Ukraine would cede parts of its territory to Russia, claiming that this war was started by “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists.” This has huge ramifications for Slovakia’s standing in both the EU and NATO.
Slovakia will most likely begin to side closer and closer to other NATO nations like Hungary in their support of Russia over Ukraine. This could pose a major problem for the United States' foreign policy objectives as more roadblocks seem to pile on top of one another.
Polish Progress:
Unlike in Slovakia, Poland’s elections had an entirely different result. In Poland, the right-wing populist and often controversial Law and Order Party lost its majority of votes to the Civic Platform-led coalition of parties. This was the first time since 2011 that the party had lost a majority of seats in their voting chamber, the Sejm.
Donald Tusk, the Civic Platform’s leader, is a staunch reformist whose platform has served as the antithesis of his predecessor. Over the past decade, Poland has been viewed as a democracy backsliding into the autocratic state it once was. With the election of Tusk, there is hope for a change in Poland’s future.
Poland’s election also changed the balance between the EU and NATO on critical issues like support for Ukraine and aid to refugees. The previous Law and Order Party created a political pact with Hungary's Victor Orban in opposing the requirements placed upon them to receive EU funding.
This is a great boon for the United States as its arsenal of democratic allies has grown officially by one more. With the resurgence of democratic liberalism in Poland, the U.S.’ foreign aid and policy regarding Europe will be much easier to complete.
New Zealand’s Conservative Shift:
A key part of the United States policy regarding China is to maintain strong relations amongst its Pacific neighbors, with New Zealand being at the top of its list. On October 14th New Zealand experienced a general election that secured a victory for the Conservative Party of New Zealand.
While President Biden and Christopher Luxon, leader of the Conservative Party, may fall on ideologically different lines both figures heavily agree on similar policies of containment in response to China’s growing encroachment.
One of the largest of these projects is the growing of relations through ANZUS, a nonbinding treaty set on military and political cooperation between the U.S., Australia, and New Zealand. The strengthening of this policy under Conservative rule shows that despite ideological barriers the Biden administration is ready and willing to cooperate in any way necessary to contain the rising Chinese threat.
What Does This Mean?
In conclusion, there are divergent impacts of these election changes on US foreign policy. Although Poland's transition to a more democratic administration and the Conservative Party's triumph in New Zealand are positive developments for the United States, the outcomes of Slovakia's election may make it more difficult for NATO to maintain a united front against Russia. In order to resolve these developments in its geopolitical environment, the United States will have to greatly modify its diplomatic and strategic approaches.
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